How long before I win (big)?

Based on data from January 2004 through to March 2012 for all big winners of £5,000 and above the following table summarises:

• The total number of winning bonds (£5,000 and above)
• The total prize value for that year
• The average number of months that someone had held the winning bond at the winning date and
• The average value of the the bond holding for winners at the win date (maximum is £30,000)

Year	Number of Winning Bonds	Total Prize Value	Average Months Held Bond at Win Date	Average of Value of Holding at Win Date
2004	1,427	£31,155,000	50.95	£17,828
2005	2,332	£48,290,000	54.26	£18,707
2006	3,295	£71,175,000	54.72	£19,494
2007	8,846	£146,200,000	54.82	£20,046
2008	3,832	£75,475,000	60.44	£20,507
2009	992	£28,250,000	60.84	£20,939
2010	1,718	£34,005,000	67.61	£20,678
2011	1,962	£38,265,000	69.75	£21,349
2012	501	£9,740,000	74.20	£21,861
Grand Total	24,905	£482,555,000	58.09	£20,010

Comments 

• Big winners in 2004 had held their bonds for a little  over  four years (50.95 months) 
• Big winners in 2011 had held their winning bonds on average for almost six years (69.75 months - ignoring 2012 for the moment as it is not complete)  
• This suggests that people are holding their bonds for longer as the big winners should be a random sample from the population
• Also it appears that people are increasing their average holding from £17,828 in 2004 to £21,349 in 2011
• The total prize value for a year is a function of the total number of bonds eligible to win prizes and the effective interest rate 
• 2007 was the 50th anniversary year which is why there are so many prizes that year 

All of the data for this analysis was collected from the National Savings and Investment High Value Winners page. Any errors in the calculations will be my fault!

The data from 2004 through to 2011 is not complete I have a few months missing. I will publish the coverage table soon.